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release time：2019-10-30
This article was first published on WeChat public account: Tianfeng Research. The content of the article belongs to the author's personal opinion and does not represent the position of Hexun.com. Investors should act accordingly, at their own risk. abstract Chemiluminescence, one of the best quality in vitro diagnostics in the next 3-5 years Chemiluminescence is one of the most important subdivisions in the in vitro diagnostic industry. In 2016, the market capacity was about 20 billion. The chemiluminescence sub-sector maintained a compound growth rate of 33% in 2011-2015. It is expected that in the next 3-5 years, with graded diagnosis and treatment. The intensification of the promotion, the grassroots medical institutions have full wings, and the chemiluminescence can still maintain a high growth rate of 20-25% in the industry, and the total market capacity doubles every three years. The domestic brand has just emerged and has huge growth potential. The effective domestic market is about 10 billion in 2016, and the compound growth rate in the next three years is 60-80%. Luminous industry growth logic: bottom-up, grassroots demand - methodological switching - domestic substitution Content domestic lighting has not been able to compete with imported brands for its current performance and stability, and it is not a domestic alternative logic in the next three years. Domestic lighting gradually develops from the bottom to the top, first fills in white and then replaces it, first occupying the incremental market and then replacing the stock market. The first step: the need to fill, the domestic brand fast card. With the continuous advancement of graded diagnosis and treatment, the demand gap of primary hospitals is filled by domestic brands, and 2015-2018 is an important card stage for domestic brands. The second step: low cost alternative to the old methodology. When domestic brands have not yet developed, hospitals use low-cost immunization methods, mainly qualitative or semi-quantitative. With the decline in the cost of automatic lighting, this part of the terminal has the need to replace the original technology platform with lighting, bringing an incremental market. The third step: occupying high-end products with distinctive products, gradually building brands and replacing imports. Due to the parallel characteristics of multi-brands, domestic brands have the opportunity to enter high-end hospitals. After the establishment of the brand and word of mouth, it is more conducive to increasing the number of projects, becoming the main force machine, and the stock market is likely to be replaced. The blue ocean of the lighting industry, the biochemical red sea industry will not repeat itself The continuous high investment, long cycle and high technology of R&D determine that its R&D threshold is extremely high, the future clinical and registration policies will be tightened, the cost pressure and hospital cooperation will become more and more difficult, and due to the absolute closure of the system, it will bring the moat, biochemical The history of competition will not repeat itself. With the influx of capital, it is still difficult to change the ending of the mirror. There are more than 50 illuminating brands on the market, and we think we should filter according to the following logic: 1. Non-listed companies will be struggling. Chemiluminescence requires continuous R&D investment. Due to the continuous and large demand for funds, capital dependence will limit the company's continuous research and development; 2. The product has not reached the scale of hundreds of millions of manufacturers in 3 years, and the future is worrying. Throughout all imported and domestic enterprises, whether it is early entrants or late entrants, companies that maintain a good momentum of development have sold more than 100 million in three years after the product launch, and three years is a threshold. 3. Manufacturers that are not yet in the lighting layout will be difficult to lock in a new round of strong growth. At present, there are large-scale tube-type domestic brands that are in a period of rapid growth. The average 3-year compound growth rate is as high as 60%. Products that are still in the lead-in period will still maintain high growth in the next 3-5 years. 4. The manufacturer who has obtained the new registration certificate needs to pay attention to its development status and it is difficult to give a judgment for the time being. After screening, A shares of high-quality luminescent targets are recommended by Mike and Antu. Market ceiling, theoretically no upper limit, with strong ductility Chemiluminescence detection targets are proteins, hormones, lipids, etc. in blood and body fluids. There are more than 10,000 target substances in the human circulatory system. Currently, there are about 200 kinds of common luminescent species, due to their sensitivity and precision. Super biochemical, theoretically developable projects have a huge space. Light-emitting single varieties can support the performance of a medium-sized multinational company, such as the well-known BRAHAMS PCT project in history, and the single-variety global market of $1 billion. Therefore, as a platform for illuminating, in addition to the continuous high growth of stock projects, the unique varieties of increments can still achieve miracles. With the clinical study of target substances, there will be more room for the future. risk warning: Imported brands continue to sink the market; technology losses have lowered the threshold for research and development. Disclaimer Thank you for your attention! The securities research information involved in this subscription number is excerpted from the securities research report that has been publicly released by Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “the company”). It is understood that if there is any deviation, the corresponding full-stock securities research report shall prevail. The content and opinions published in this subscription number are for the use of the company's customers only and are not considered as the customer because the recipient receives this information. The contents and opinions expressed in this subscription number are for reference only and do not represent the position of the company or any affiliates of the company. They do not constitute investment advice for anyone. The recipient should judge whether to use this subscription according to individual circumstances. The content contained in the number is at your own risk. This subscription number does not guarantee that any investment and strategy is suitable for the recipient and does not constitute a private advice to the recipient. The company is not responsible for any direct or indirect damages caused by anyone using any of the content contained in this subscription number. The copyright of the content and opinions published in this subscription number is owned by Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd. Unless otherwise stated, the copyright of all information in this subscription number belongs to the company, and no one may change it without the written authorization of the company. Or send, copy or transmit all or part of the materials and content in this subscription number in any way. Article source: WeChat public number Tianfeng research
